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Start them or Sit them in Week 3
Sep
While designed for season-long leagues, Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em can also be employed for daily fantasy sports. I try to avoid the obvious plays, as those of you who have been following this for the past few years are aware. We should start players like Jalen Hurts, Joe Mixon, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, anyone can argue on this forum. I make an effort to delve a bit further.
Start them or Sit them in Week 3
Kirk Cousins’ Week 1 start against the Lions – QB18 in fantasy After two games, Cousins is coming off a nightmare Week 2 performance against the Eagles, completing only 58.7% of his passes for 221 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions while averaging a terrible 4.8 YPA, earning him the QB25 week.
That happened after Cousins tore through the Packers for 277 yards and a 2:0 TD: INT ratio in the first game as the QB12 for Week 1. The Lions rank 28th in fantasy points awarded to quarterbacks, 27th in passing yards permitted, and 19th in pass-defense DVOA, while the Eagles are No. 4 after two weeks.
In Weeks 1-2 against Detroit, Jalen Hurts and Carson Wentz both had top-five fantasy weeks. Wentz required a significant amount of garbage time because Hurts clearly did most of his damage with his legs. However, the Vikings are fourth in pass rate over expectation after two games
and Justin Jefferson clearly outperforms whatever the Lions send out there to cover him. Cousins doesn’t contribute much, if anything, with his legs, but this game includes two strong offenses and has the highest point total in Week 3 at 53. This week’s #1 streaming choice is Cousins.
After two weeks, Burrow is the fantasy QB11 and trails Joe Flacco, who will be on the opposing side of this game, in the NFL in pass attempts. One of the biggest letdowns is the 0-2 Bengals, and Burrow has thrown four interceptions, one fewer than Matthew Stafford in last place.
After the Jets let up 31 points to the Jacoby Brissett-led Browns last week, though, this game appears to be one that the Bengals can win with help from everyone on the team. According to Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades and pass-defense DVOA, coach Robert Saleh’s defense ranks dead last.
The T.J. Watts and Myles Garretts of the world will give Burrow’s new offensive line, which is 31st in pass blocking DVOA against a Jets team that is 22nd in adjusted sack rate, a little break. As six-point favorites, the Bengals will probably try to lean more heavily on Joe Mixon, but Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have mismatches out wide. Last Week 8, Burrow destroyed the Jets for three touchdowns and the QB10 performance. The estimated team total of 24.75 points for Cincinnati ranks seventh in Week 3.
Through two weeks, Stafford has the most interceptions in the league, averages a poor 6.6 yards per attempt, and is the fantasy QB17. With LT Andrew Whitworth retired, RG Austin Corbett now in Carolina, C BrIan Allen recovering from surgery on his knee, RG Coleman Shelton now filling in at center
and fill-in RG Tremayne Anchrum done for the season and replaced by someone named AJ Jackson, his offensive line is in complete disarray. Fortunately, Stafford was able to move past his disappointing performance in Week 1 and had a stellar QB10 day last week against the Falcons by tossing three touchdown passes.
He now faces an Arizona defense that ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate, 28th in pass-defense DVOA, and 31st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The Cardinals are unable to pressure the passer or cover. It makes for successful quarterbacking. The Rams’ indicated team total of 26 points is the sixth-highest on the slate, and this game’s 48.5-point total is the fourth-highest of Week 3.
Following Week 2’s top fantasy performer, Tua Tagovailoa, who torched the Ravens for 469 yards and six touchdowns, this feels a lot like chasing points and arriving late to the party. But because the Bills are No. 1 in pass rate above expectation and Miami is third, this AFC East matchup puts two of the three pass-heaviest offenses against one another.
Buffalo travels to Miami as six-point favorites, and the Bills have already easily defeated the Rams and Titans to start the season. That team, the AFC’s top seed, was the Super Bowl champion from the previous year. Tagovailoa might be playing catch-up on the scoreboard, similar to last week.
The Bills are No. 1 in adjusted sack rate, No. 2 in pass-defense DVOA, and No. 1 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, but this defense is still playing without top CB Tre’Davious White (knee, PUP), starting CB Dane Jackson (neck), and now starting safeties. Micah Hyde (neck) and Jordan Poyer (foot) were both absent from practice on Thursday.
This secondary is weakened and will face Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins’ standout wideout combination. Both receivers are absolutely saturating the Miami targets and are capable of scoring from anywhere on the field.
Simply put, Tagovailoa needs to get it to them, which he has demonstrated through two weeks by ranking No. 2 in passing yards on throws of 20 yards or more. With 52.5 points, Bills-Dolphins had the second-highest tally of the week.
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