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than predicted Hughes ,suggest that the research community may have underestimated climate risks for coral golden retriever grvengers marvel avengers dogs lover shirt reefs ure .. The general assessment of climate risks for mangroves prior to this special report was that they face greater risks from

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suggesting regional differences in the risks of coastal flooding. Regionally differentiated multi-sector risks are already apparent at . of warming, being more prevalent where vulnerable people live, predominantly in South Asia , but these risks are projected to spread to sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and East Asia as temperature rises, with the world’s poorest people disproportionately impacted at of warming Byers . The hydrological impacts of climate change in Europe are projected to increase in spatial extent and intensity across golden retriever grvengers marvel avengers dogs lover shirt increasing global warming levels of ., and Donnelly . Taken together, a transition from moderate to high risk is now located between . and above pre-industrial levels, based on the assessment of risks to food security, water resources, drought, heat exposure and coastal submergence high confidence; ure .. It is widely recognized that small islands are very sensitive to climate change impacts such as sea level rise, oceanic warming, heavy precipitation, cyclones and coral bleaching Nurse , Ourbak and Magnan. Even at . of global warming, the compounding impacts of changes in rainfall, temperature, tropical cyclones and sea level are likely to be significant across multiple natural and human systems. There are potential benefits to small island developing states from avoided risks at . versus , especially when coupled with adaptation efforts. In terms of sea level rise, by , roughly , fewer people living in SIDS will be exposed in a . world than in a world Rasmussen . Constraining global warming to .

may significantly reduce water stress by about compared to the projected water stress at , for example in the Caribbean region Karnauskas , and may enhance the ability of SIDS to adapt . Up to of the year is projected to be very warm in the Caribbean at ., with a further increase by up to days at versus . Taylor . By limiting warming to . instead of in , risks of coastal flooding measured as the flood amplification factors for -year flood events are reduced by for SIDS Rasmussen . A case study of Jamaica with lessons for other Caribbean SIDS demonstrated that the difference between . and is likely to challenge livestock thermoregulation, resulting in persistent heat stress for livestock Lallo . Climate model simulations are necessary for the investigation of the response of the climate system to various forcings, in particular to forcings associated with higher levels of greenhouse gas concentrations. Model simulations include experiments with global and regional climate models, as well as impact models driven with output from climate models to evaluate the risk related to climate change for natural and human systems Supplementary Material .SM.. Climate model simulations were generally used in the context of particular ‘climate scenarios’ from previous IPCC reports , IPCC, . This means that emissions scenarios were used to drive climate models, providing different projections for given emissions pathways. The results were consequently used in a ‘storyline’ framework, which presents the development of climate in the course of the st century and beyond for a given emissions pathway. Results were assessed for different time slices within the model projections such as ‘near term’, which is slightly below a global warming of . according to most scenarios, Kirtman , mid-st century, Collins , and end of st century, Collins . Given that this report focuses on climate change for a given mean global temperature response . or , methods of analysis had to be developed andor adapted from previous studies in order to provide assessments for the specific purposes here. Climate change , sea level rise, heat stress, storms presents risk for coastal ecosystems such as seagrass and reef-building corals ure , Supplementary Material .SM., with evidence of increasing concern since AR and the conclusion that tropical corals may be even more vulnerable to climate change than indicated in assessments made in . The current assessment also considered the heatwave-related loss of of shallow-water corals across hundreds of kilometres of the world’s largest continuous coral reef system, the Great Barrier Reef. These large-scale impacts, plus the observation of back-to-back bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef predicted two decades ago, Hoegh-Guldberg, and arriving sooner

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