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This would constitute a fair attempt to use values for cases and deaths belonging to the same group of patients. One issue can be that of determining whether there is enough data to estimate T with any precision, Vincent van gogh starry night cat art filter activated carbon face mask but it is certainly not T = 0 (what is implicitly used when applying the formula current deaths / current cases to determine CFR during an ongoing outbreak). Let’s take, for example, the data at the end of February 8, 2020: 813 deaths (cumulative total) and 37,552 cases (cumulative total) worldwide. If we use the formula (deaths / cases) we get, 813 / 37,552 = 2.2% CFR (flawed formula). With a conservative estimate of T = 7 days as the average period from case confirmation to death, we would correct the above formula by using
February 1 cumulative cases, which were 14,381, in the denominator, Feb. 8 deaths / Feb. 1 cases = 813 / 14,381 = 5.7% CFR (correct formula, and estimating T=7). T could be estimated by simply looking at the value of (current total deaths + current total recovered) and pair it with a case total in the past that has the same value. For the above formula, the matching dates would be January 26/27, providing an estimate for T of 12 to 13 days. Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease. This method of estimating T uses the same logic of the following method, and therefore will yield the same result. An alternative method, which has the advantage of not having to estimate a variable.